State Pension Forecast: How to Check Your Amount

If you have ever wondered how much State Pension you will actually get when you retire, you are not alone. It is one of the most common questions I hear from sole traders and small business owners — and yet surprisingly few people have ever checked. The good news is that it takes about ten minutes, costs nothing, and could genuinely change how you plan the next decade of your working life.

In this post, I will walk you through exactly how to check your State Pension forecast, what the numbers mean, and what you can do if yours is looking a bit thin. Whether you are twenty-five or sixty-five, understanding your forecast is one of the smartest financial moves you can make.

What Is a State Pension Forecast?

Your State Pension forecast is an estimate from the government showing how much State Pension you could get when you reach State Pension age. It is based on your National Insurance (NI) record up to the current date, and it projects forward to show what you might receive if you continue contributing at the same rate.

The forecast will typically show you three key pieces of information. First, the amount you would get per week if you stopped contributing today. Second, the amount you could get if you continue contributing until State Pension age. Third, the date you will reach State Pension age.

For the 2025/26 tax year, the full new State Pension is £230.25 per week, which works out at roughly £11,973 per year. To qualify for the full amount, you generally need 35 qualifying years of National Insurance contributions. If you have fewer than 35 qualifying years, your State Pension will be reduced proportionally — but you need at least 10 qualifying years to get anything at all.

It is worth noting that if you reached State Pension age before 6 April 2016, you will be on the old State Pension system, which works differently. The forecast tool handles both systems, so you do not need to worry about which one applies to you.

For a broader understanding of how the State Pension fits into your retirement planning, have a look at our complete State Pension guide, which covers the fundamentals in more detail.

How to Check Your State Pension Forecast Online

Checking your forecast is straightforward, but you will need a Government Gateway or GOV.UK Verify account. If you do not have one, you will need to create one first, which involves verifying your identity.

Here is the step-by-step process:

Step 1: Visit the GOV.UK forecast tool. Head to the Check your State Pension forecast page on GOV.UK. This is the official government service — do not use any third-party websites that claim to offer the same thing.

Step 2: Sign in or create an account. You will need to sign in with your Government Gateway user ID and password. If you have used HMRC online services before — for Self Assessment or Making Tax Digital, for example — you likely already have an account. If not, you can create one during this process.

Step 3: Review your forecast. Once you are signed in, you will see your personalised forecast. It will show your estimated weekly State Pension amount, when you can claim it, and how many qualifying years you have on your NI record.

Step 4: Check your National Insurance record. From the forecast page, you can click through to view your full NI record. This shows every tax year, whether it counts as a qualifying year, and whether there are any gaps. This is where things get really interesting — and potentially really valuable.

If you cannot use the online service, you can request a forecast by post. Fill in form BR19, which is available on the GOV.UK BR19 form page, and send it to the Future Pension Centre. It takes a few weeks to arrive, but it contains the same information.

Understanding Your Forecast Results

When you see your forecast, the numbers might look encouraging or alarming — context is everything. Let me help you interpret what you see.

If your forecast shows the full State Pension amount: Brilliant. You are on track, and you likely have enough qualifying years already or will reach 35 years comfortably before State Pension age. You do not need to do anything special regarding your NI record, though you should still consider whether the State Pension alone will be enough for retirement.

If your forecast shows less than the full amount: This is common, particularly among self-employed people who may have had periods where they were not paying National Insurance. The gap between your forecast and the full amount represents an opportunity — you may be able to fill in missing years by making voluntary NI contributions.

If you see gaps in your NI record: Gaps can occur for several reasons. Perhaps you were earning below the threshold, living abroad, or simply had a year where your records were not updated correctly. Some gaps are easy and cost-effective to fill; others may not be worth the investment.

The key calculation is straightforward. Each qualifying year you add to your record increases your State Pension by approximately £6.58 per week (the full amount divided by 35 years). That is £342.16 per year for the rest of your retirement. If you expect to be retired for 20 years, that single year of NI contributions could be worth over £6,800 in total pension income.

If you discover gaps in your record and want to understand whether filling them makes sense, our guide on NI voluntary contributions goes into the cost-benefit analysis in much greater detail.

Why Self-Employed People Should Pay Extra Attention

If you are self-employed, your State Pension situation deserves particular scrutiny. Here is why.

Employed people have National Insurance deducted automatically from their wages, and their employer pays an additional contribution on top. The system works quietly in the background, building up qualifying years without the employee needing to think about it.

Self-employed people, on the other hand, pay Class 2 and Class 4 National Insurance through Self Assessment. Class 2 contributions are what actually count towards your State Pension qualifying years. At just £3.45 per week for 2025/26, they are remarkably cheap — but they are also easy to miss if your profits fall below the Small Profits Threshold (£6,845 for 2025/26).

If your self-employed profits are below the Small Profits Threshold, you can choose to pay voluntary Class 2 contributions to protect your State Pension entitlement. This is almost always worth doing. For less than £180 per year, you secure a qualifying year that could be worth thousands over the course of your retirement.

There are also situations where self-employed people have gaps because they started their business later in life, took career breaks, or had years with very low income. In all of these cases, checking your forecast is the essential first step.

For a broader look at pension planning as a self-employed person, including private pension options that can sit alongside your State Pension, take a look at our guide to pension contributions and tax relief. The tax advantages of private pension contributions are genuinely significant, especially for higher earners.

What to Do If Your Forecast Is Lower Than Expected

If your forecast reveals a shortfall, do not panic. You have several options, and the best approach depends on your specific circumstances.

Fill gaps with voluntary NI contributions. As I mentioned, this is often the most cost-effective way to boost your State Pension. You can usually fill gaps going back six years, though there is currently an extended deadline that allows you to fill gaps back to April 2006. This extended deadline will not last forever, so if you have older gaps, acting sooner rather than later is important.

Claim National Insurance credits. You may be entitled to NI credits that you are not currently receiving. Credits are available for periods when you were caring for children under 12, caring for someone who is ill or disabled, receiving certain benefits, or on jury service. These credits count as qualifying years and cost nothing.

Continue working and contributing. If you are still working, each year of contributions adds to your record. If you need more qualifying years, simply continuing to work and pay NI will get you there eventually — assuming you have enough years before reaching State Pension age.

Consider your overall retirement plan. The State Pension is a foundation, not a complete retirement plan. Even the full amount of roughly £12,000 per year is unlikely to fund a comfortable retirement on its own. This is where private pensions, ISAs, and other savings come in. If you are self-employed, a SIPP (Self-Invested Personal Pension) or a scheme like NEST can provide valuable additional income in retirement, with the added benefit of tax relief on your contributions.

Keeping Track of Your Forecast Over Time

I would recommend checking your State Pension forecast at least once a year. There are a few reasons for this.

First, it helps you spot any errors in your NI record early. HMRC records are generally accurate, but mistakes do happen. If a qualifying year is missing, it is much easier to sort out while records are still fresh.

Second, your circumstances change. Maybe you had a year with low profits, or you took time off to care for a family member. Checking your forecast lets you see the impact and decide whether to take action.

Third, the State Pension rules can change. The government periodically adjusts the State Pension age, the amounts, and the qualifying criteria. Staying informed means you can adjust your retirement planning accordingly.

If you use Accounted for your bookkeeping and tax management, keeping on top of your National Insurance contributions becomes much simpler. Our features include real-time tracking of your tax position, which includes the NI contributions that feed into your State Pension entitlement. That way, there are no nasty surprises when you check your forecast.

Common Questions About State Pension Forecasts

Can I get a State Pension and a private pension? Absolutely. The State Pension and private pensions are completely separate. You can receive both, and in fact, most financial advisers recommend having private pension savings on top of your State Pension.

Does my State Pension get taxed? The State Pension counts as taxable income, but it is paid without any tax being deducted. If your total income (including State Pension) exceeds your Personal Allowance, you will need to pay tax on the excess. This is usually collected through adjustments to your tax code if you have other income, or through Self Assessment.

What happens to my State Pension if I move abroad? You can still claim the UK State Pension if you move abroad, but whether it increases each year depends on which country you move to. In some countries, your State Pension is frozen at the rate it was when you left or the rate when you first claimed it.

Can I defer my State Pension? Yes. If you defer claiming your State Pension, it increases by 1% for every nine weeks you defer. That works out at just under 5.8% for every full year of deferral. This can be a useful strategy if you are still earning good money when you reach State Pension age.

My forecast seems wrong — what should I do? Contact the Future Pension Centre on 0800 731 0175. They can review your record and correct any errors. It is also worth checking whether you are entitled to any NI credits that have not been applied.

Taking Action Today

Here is what I would suggest as your immediate next steps. First, check your State Pension forecast online — it genuinely takes about ten minutes. Second, review your NI record for any gaps. Third, if there are gaps, consider whether voluntary contributions would be worthwhile. Fourth, think about how the State Pension fits into your broader retirement plan.

If you are a sole trader or run a small business, your pension planning is entirely in your own hands. Nobody is going to do it for you. But the good news is that with a bit of attention, the State Pension can provide a solid foundation for your retirement — and private pension contributions on top can make a really significant difference, especially with the tax relief available.

If you would like help keeping your business finances organised so that tax planning — including pension contributions — becomes straightforward rather than stressful, sign up for Accounted and let me help you stay on top of everything. I am Penny, your AI bookkeeper, and I am here to make the numbers work for you.

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